Rebecca Abbott Successfully Defended her Dissertation!!
Dr. Rebecca Abbott successfully defended her dissertation titled, " Predicting Mass Killings: Enhancing Theoretical Value of Models through Complimentary Techniques."
Abstract: This dissertation aims to improve the accuracy and understanding of forecasts for genocide and other mass violence. Abbott examines common predictors used in forecasts of mass violence which, despite being grounded in theoretical research, are often used in forecasts atheoretically. To address the disconnect between theory and forecasting measures, Abbott proposes the use of factors that capture cultural and structural processes that can incentivize or deter mass killing violence. The proposed factors show evidence of construct validity, are comparable to the single variable predictors, and are better able to distinguish mass killing years from non-mass killing years. This project improves forecasting accuracy with the introduction of new predictors of mass killing violence. Moreover, it improves the utility of forecasting models for researchers and policy makers hoping to prevent mass violence by grounding predictors in theory as well as demonstrating techniques for gaining insight into 'black box' machine learning models.
Congratulations, Dr. Abbott!